Cold fronts

A cold front is represented by a blue line with triangles oriented in the direction of the front movement. A cold front represents the leading edge of a cold air mass that pushes it way under a warmer, lighter air mass, forcing it to rise rapidly, as a bulldozer effect. This rising motion often creates towering clouds, showers, or thunderstorms, especially if the warm air is moist. As the front passes, there's typically a sudden drop in temperature, a sharp wind shift (often veering), and a quick rise in air pressure. Cold fronts usually move fast and bring abrupt, sometimes violent weather changes, making them especially important for sailors to anticipate. Wind can shift from SE (Jugo) to W or NW in Bora situations.

Example of a cold front moving over England and Britany on 14 July 2025

Warm fronts

A warm front is the leading edge of a warm, lighter air mass that slowly rises over a retreating cold air mass. Because the warm air ascends gradually, it forms layered clouds (starting with high cirrus and thickening to stratus), often bringing steady rain or drizzle over a long period. The approach of a warm front is marked by a slow drop in pressure, increasing humidity, and winds that back (e.g., from east to southeast). After the front passes, temperatures rise gently, the rain eases, and pressure stabilizes or rises slowly. Warm fronts usually move slowly and bring more subtle but prolonged weather changes than cold fronts.

Example of a warm front moving eastward across Ireland, https://meteo.hr/prognoze_e.php?section=prognoze_model&param=web_fronte_sutra12

When a warm front passes, the changes are more gradual and subtle than with a cold front, but they still can have a big impact on sailing... 

Mesoscale drivers, understanding regional weather drivers in the Northern Adriatic

When the synoptic map shows nothing special, the real action often comes from local and regional weather drivers.

In the Northern Adriatic, weather conditions are often influenced not just by global and synoptic patterns but by mesoscale drivers, regional-scale systems that operate over tens to hundreds of kilometres. These drivers can change wind strength and direction dramatically over just a few hours or even minutes, especially near coastlines and islands.

Understanding these mesoscale effects is essential for safe and comfortable sailing in this highly variable and geographically complex region.

40 knots bora katabatic wind in Senj, while only 10 knots in Mali-Lošinj, 

from Northeast over the Triest and Senj area on 9 June 2025.

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1. Sea breeze and land breeze cycles

Sea breeze (daytime)

• Driven by temperature contrast between land (which heats faster) and sea.
• Warm air over land rises; cooler, denser air from the sea rushes in to replace it.
• Typically builds late morning, peaks in the afternoon (10-20 knots), and fades around sunset.
• Most reliable in spring and summer, during clear-sky high-pressure conditions.

Land breeze (nighttime)

• Land cools faster than sea after sunset.
• Cold air over land flows out to sea, usually as a light offshore wind (less than 10 knots).
• Can oppose or reinforce synoptic winds depending on alignment.
• Watch out: the transition period around sunset and sunrise can be tricky, especially when sea breeze fights against a light synoptic wind.

Caution: can result in 180° shift in wind direction, to take into account when anchoring in a small cove.

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2. Mountain and valley winds

The Dinaric Alps and surrounding terrain create downslope (katabatic) and upslope (anabatic) flows:

Katabatic winds

• Cold, dense air descends rapidly down mountain slopes.
• Strengthens at night, especially during Bora events.
• Can cause sudden gusts even when synoptic maps show calm conditions.

Anabatic winds

• Sun heats mountain slopes during the day.
• Warm air rises, sometimes enhancing cloud formation over inland hills.
• Can trigger localised convection, cumulus development, or instability.

Example: inland hills east of Trieste can enhance the afternoon sea breeze or destabilize conditions.

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3. Thunderstorms and squall lines ("nevera")

In summer, especially from June to September, the Adriatic is prone to rapidly forming convective storms:

• Triggered by hot, moist surface air meeting a cold air mass aloft or by convergence zones.
• Typically form in late afternoon or evening and may come from the northwest, crossing from Italy or forming over Istria.
• Nevera: sudden violent squall line, short-lived but dangerous. Winds can spike to 30+ knots with thunder, lightning, and downbursts (see "Never ever again unprepared for Nevera, 16 June, Šibenik").

Caution: nevera often form under clear skies and may not be well-flagged by forecasts.

Synoptic scale: understanding global weather drivers

Understanding weather begins at the global level, what meteorologists call the synoptic scale. The word "synoptic" comes from Greek and means "seen together" or "comprehensive." In meteorology, it refers to large-scale atmospheric patterns and interactions that influence the weather over wide areas.

Figure 1: synoptic chart over the Atlantic ocean and Europe, 6 August 2025

Synoptic scale level is the first level to consider when assessing weather before heading at sea. It gives an overview of the large scale drivers such as high and low pressure areas, front positions, clouds, winds, air and sea temperatures...

Setting the global picture: how air moves around the earth

“To understand what’s going to happen next in your sailing spot, you need to know what’s happening around the world.”

When planning a sailing trip, particularly in the relatively enclosed Adriatic, knowing where the wind comes from, where it might go next and what will be the drivers is vital. Most of the winds we experience aren't just random gusts. They are part of a much larger earth’s atmospheric circulation.

Figure 1. Idealised depiction (at equinox) of large-scale atmospheric circulation on Earth, Wikipedia

This post explores how the global engine of wind and weather works, and why it matters every time you raise your sails...

Adriatic weather forecast sites

This page is a compilation of links that I use to explore the weather situation in Northern Adriatic.

Belisama in Limfjord, 20-21 July 2025

As part of or summer explorations, we decided to explore the Limfjord with a couple of South-African friends on a weekend where all conditions could be met: none of us four having to work and weather permitting. The ride from Marina Polesana is 27 nautical miles, heading north through Fažana and Rovinj, before heading up the Limfjord. 

Our Australian friends were there for a couple of days last year after we met in Umag and they were advising us to visit this place. And we did and understood why...